SERVICES

Marketing Mix Modeling

Statistical modeling for true attribution and optimal budget allocation.

Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) answers the question every marketing leader wants answered: "What's the optimal way to allocate my budget across channels to maximize ROI?" Traditional attribution (last-click, linear, time-decay) is guesswork. MMM uses statistical modeling to identify the actual contribution of each channel, accounting for seasonality and market trends, competitive activity, lagged effects (brand campaigns impact sales weeks later), synergy effects (channels work better together), and saturation and diminishing returns. Most businesses dramatically over-invest in saturated channels while under-investing in high-performing ones. They misattribute revenue to final-touch channels while undervaluing awareness building. They can't test budget scenarios before committing. MMM solves all of this. PROBLEM STATEMENT Budget allocation is guesswork based on correlation, not causation. Last-click attribution says every sale came from your last email. You think email is your best performing channel. Reality: email is just the final touch. The awareness campaign three months prior created the purchase intent. Shift all budget to email and sales collapse. Lagged effects go unnoticed. Brand awareness campaigns impact sales 4-8 weeks later. You run awareness campaign in January, stop in February (no immediate ROI), then blame it for underperformance. You never see its actual impact in March-May. Channel synergies hidden. Search works better when supported by brand awareness. Email works better when people already know who you are. You can't see that paid search ROI depends on concurrent brand spending. Cut brand spending and search performance drops 30%. Diminishing returns ignored. You spend $100K on Google Ads generating $300K revenue (3x ROI). You spend $200K generating only $450K revenue (2.25x ROI). The second $100K had lower ROI. But you don't see it. You assume all $200K generated 2.25x. HOW IT WORKS Data Collection gathers historical spend + revenue by channel (minimum 12-24 months). Seasonality Modeling identifies seasonal patterns. Lagged Effect Analysis determines how long channel impact lasts. Saturation Curves identifies where diminishing return begins. Incrementality Analysis identifies what's paid vs. organic contribution. Optimization Modeling identifies what budget mix maximizes ROI. Scenario Planning tests budget mixes virtually. The output is clear: Channel A should be 35% of budget. Channel B should be 22%. Channel C should be 43%. And this recommendation accounts for seasonality, lagged effects, synergies, and saturation. REAL-WORLD RESULTS Multi-Location Retail: $500K annual ad spend across 12 channels. MMM discovered 3 channels generating minimal ROI (thought they were efficient). Reallocated to high-performing channels. Revenue increased 38% with same total spend. Identified that Google Local performed 40% better when supported by concurrent brand awareness. SaaS Company: $200K monthly spend across 6 channels. Traditional attribution showed email as highest ROI. MMM revealed email only worked when paired with search. Search generated awareness. Email converted. Together they were 5.2x ROI. Separately they were 2.1x and 3.1x. Scenario analysis showed optimal mix was 40% search, 35% email, 25% brand. IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE Weeks 1-2: Data collection and preparation. Weeks 3-4: Seasonality and lagged effect analysis. Week 5: Saturation curve development. Week 6: Optimization modeling. Week 7: Scenario planning and recommendations. Deliverable: Clear budget recommendations with confidence intervals. FAQ SECTION Q: How many channels can you model? A: Typically 5-12. More is possible but modeling accuracy decreases with too many channels and insufficient data. Q: What's the minimum data needed? A: 12 months minimum. 24 months is ideal to capture full seasonality and year-over-year patterns. Q: Can you model non-digital channels? A: Yes. We can model offline channels (radio, TV, print, direct mail) if they have associated spend and conversion data. PRICING Starter: $3,000/month (up to 5 channels, basic modeling). Growth: $6,000/month (up to 12 channels, advanced analysis). Enterprise: $10,000+/month (unlimited channels, white-glove modeling).